Sensitivity Analysis of the Super Heavy Rainfall Event in Henan on 20 July (2021) Using ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts     

黄绮君  葛旭阳  彭顺台  邓中仁 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(3):308-325

An unprecedented heavy rainfall event occurred in Henan Province, China, during the period of 1200 UTC 19 -1200 UTC 20 July 2021 with a record of 522 mm accumulated rainfall. Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan, received 201.9 mm of rainfall in just one hour on the day. In the present study, the sensitivity of this event to atmospheric variables is investigated using the ECMWF ensemble forecasts. The sensitivity analysis first indicates that a local YellowHuai River low vortex (YHV) in the southern part of Henan played a crucial role in this extreme event. Meanwhile, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was stronger than the long-term average and to the west of its climatological position. Moreover, the existence of a tropical cyclone (TC) In-Fa pushed into the peripheral of the WPSH and brought an enhanced easterly flow between the TC and WPSH channeling abundant moisture to inland China and feeding into the YHV. Members of the ECMWF ensemble are selected and grouped into the GOOD and the POOR groups based on their predicted maximum rainfall accumulations during the event. Some good members of ECMWF ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) are able to capture good spatial distribution of the heavy rainfall, but still underpredict its extremity. The better prediction ability of these members comes from the better prediction of the evolution characteristics (i.e., intensity and location) of the YHV and TC In-Fa. When the YHV was moving westward to the south of Henan, a relatively strong southerly wind in the southwestern part of Henan converged with the easterly flow from the channel wind between In-Fa and WPSH. The convergence and accompanying ascending motion induced heavy precipitation.  相似文献   

2014~2020年东部沿海典型城市甲醛柱浓度年际变化研究          下载免费PDF全文

谭琦馨  葛宝珠  王大玮  潘小乐  王君华  陈学舜  杨文夷  陈焕盛  杨颖川  张颖  王自发 《气候与环境研究》2022,27(2):276-284

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校园人群应急疏散行为及其影响因素研究     

钟光淳  翟国方  毕雪梅  葛懿夫 《地震研究》2022,45(1):150-159

校园作为城市高密度地区的典型区域,建筑密度高、道路错综曲折、灾后疏散难度大。以南京中心城区某高校为实证研究案例,展开问卷调查;采用皮尔逊卡方检验法,对校园人群安全意识及疏散行为和性别、年龄、受教育程度及参加疏散演练次数等人员特性信息进行交叉分析,得到存在相关性的变量组;基于Logistic回归模型,建立了人群特征、安全意识评价指标对校园人群疏散行为及心理影响的评价模型,识别疏散行为影响因素,以及各因素的影响程度大小。结果表明:年龄、性别以及参加过疏散演练的次数是影响人群安全意识及疏散行为的显著相关因素,学历是相关因素;地震灾害下受访人群对避难场所的选择偏好为:场地型避难场所>建筑型避难场所>地下空间;参加疏散演练的次数,安全意识、风险认知对灾害发生时的人群疏散行为有显著影响。  相似文献   

城市地下空间开发利用地质适宜性三维评价指标体系研究——以杭州市为例     

邢怀学  窦帆帆  葛伟亚  华健  常晓军  蔡小虎 《地质论评》2022,68(1):2022020010-2022020010

地下空间开发地质适宜性三维评价是合理进行地下空间立体化开发、降低开发地质风险的重要手段,也是当前研究热点。作为地质适宜性三维评价全过程的重要一环,科学合理地建立三维评价指标体系是其能否正确开展的前提基础。通过结合杭州城市地下空间开发面临的地质问题,在系统分析各评价指标对地下空间开发建设影响的特征基础上,以三维视角从地层三维结构等多个方面构建完成了一套具有多层次结构的三维评价指标体系,并采用层次分析方法对评价指标进行了目标权重的计算、一致性检验、排序和分析。该指标体系可划分为5个准则层21个指标层,相较于二维评价指标体系,通过融合三维地质模型和三维空间分析方法,使评价过程中能够考虑更多的评价因子,更好地描绘地下复杂的三维地质环境,丰富了三维评价结果的内涵。基于模糊综合评价方法的杭州钱江新城二期的三维评价应用成果表明,该指标体系为三维地质模型和三维空间分析方法之间的整合提供了有力的指导,为提升三维尺度下的地下空间开发地质适宜性评价精度和准确性提供了有力的支持。  相似文献   

基于CT三维重建的注水煤岩体裂隙扩展规律研究     

毛彦军  陈曦  范超男  葛少成  李文璞 《岩土力学》2022,43(6):1717-1726

针对煤层注水防尘过程中注水压力设置不合理、注水渗流效果差等问题,采用CT扫描技术与RFPA软件相结合的方法,构建了可以表征注水煤岩体内部孔裂隙结构的三维细观非均匀渗流损伤数值模型。通过对经过CT三维重构的煤岩模型进行不同注水压力的渗流损伤模拟,研究了煤层注水压力对煤样的渗流破坏、渗透率演化及声发射特性变化的影响;并通过对重构的煤岩模型进行缩放处理,研究了煤岩尺寸对煤样的渗流破坏和声发射变化的影响。研究结果表明：在煤样微观裂隙扩展过程中,随着注水压力的递增,煤样损伤单元数、渗流运动的渗流场分布范围、渗透率、声发射数目和能量总体呈上升趋势,局部范围内有波动发生,发生波动的原因是由于渗流运动的渗流场与煤样裂隙内部应力场发生临界反应,致使煤样破坏单元位置发生改变;煤样渗透率由3.82×10−5 μm2上升至0.314 μm2,孔隙率由5.45%上升至48.45%,揭示了煤岩体裂隙总体上随注水压力增大而不断扩展贯通,局部上随注水压力增大而扩展趋势有所下降的影响规律;随着煤样尺寸的增加,注水破坏后煤样的孔隙率呈现先下降后逐渐平稳的趋势,声发射特性变化趋势正好与之相反,表明煤样的尺寸对注水煤岩渗流破坏有显著影响,但当煤样尺寸超过40 mm时,煤样尺寸对注水煤岩渗流破坏的影响趋于稳定。CT扫描技术与RFPA软件相结合的方法能够有效模拟注水煤岩的裂隙渗流扩展行为。  相似文献   

Haitaite-(La), LaU4+Fe3+2(Ti13Fe2+4Fe3+)Σ18O38, a New Member of the Crichtonite Group     

WANG Fenggang  FAN Guang  LI Ting  GE Xiangkun  WU Yu  WANG Tao  YAO Jian 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(6):2007-2014

Haitaite-(La), (La, Ce)(U4+, U6+, Fe2+)(Fe3+, Al)2(Ti, Fe2+, Fe3+)18O38, is a new member of the crichtonite group. It is named after the Haita Village in the Miyi County of Sichuan Province, China, where the mineral was discovered. The mineral occurs as black opaque centimeter-sized aggregates in the external contact zone between the Neoproterozoic (~800 Ma) alkali feldspar granite and the Mesoproterozoic (~1700 Ma) micaschist. In the studied sample, haitaite-(La) is associated with other minerals, including ilmenite, magnetite, rutile, zircon, brannerite and uraninite. The new mineral is a black, metallic phase and has a Mohs hardness of 6, with a density of 4.99 g/cm3 (calculated) and 5.03 g/cm3 (measured). Haitaite-(La) is opaque in transmitted light and grayish-white under reflected light, with a reflectivity between 22.5% and 16.42% in the 400–700 nm band (SiC, in the air). The compositions of the mineral were measured by EPMA, the U4+/U6+ ratio was determined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and the Fe2+/Fe3+ ratio was determined by M?ssbauer spectroscopy. Haitaite-(La) is trigonal, belongs to R3ˉ and has unit-cell parameters a = 10.3678(5) ?, c = 20.8390(11) ?, V = 1939.9(2) ?3, Z = 3. The crystalline structure is composed of octahedra with 9 layers of close-packed octahedra (M1, M3, M4, M5), tetrahedra (M2) and contains large 12-coordinated M0 sites.  相似文献   

南海北部琼东南盆地第四系陆架边缘轨迹迁移及深水沉积模式     

马畅  葛家旺  赵晓明  廖晋  姚哲  朱继田  方小宇  向柱 《地学前缘》2022,29(4):55-72

陆架边缘迁移轨迹综合受控于构造、物源、海平面和气候等多种因素,其迁移演化与深水沉积体系发育关系密切。陆架边缘迁移规律及沉积物输送体制与深水砂体预测是当前国际地学领域的热点议题。本文通过基于琼东南盆地新采集的高精度地震资料,定量表征了第四系陆架边缘轨迹,识别了低角度缓慢上升型、中等角度上升型和高角度急剧上升型等3类陆架边缘轨迹类型。2.4 Ma以来,陆架边缘轨迹时空演化可分为3个阶段且具有侧向差异性:2.4~1.9 Ma以低角度缓慢上升型为主,1.9~0.8 Ma西北部以低角度缓慢上升型为主,东北部则以中等角度上升型为主,0.8 Ma至今西北部以中等角度上升型为主,东北部以高角度急剧上升型为主。琼东南盆地第四系陆架边缘迁移轨迹研究表明:当陆架边缘轨迹角0°<α<4°时,陆坡区峡谷规模较小且下切浅,深海平原区发育多期大型海底扇沉积,块体搬运沉积(MTDs)较少;当4°<α<35°时,陆坡区峡谷规模有所增加,深海平原区海底扇沉积与块体搬运沉积均有出现;当35°<α<90°时,陆坡区峡谷发育较少但下切深,深水平原区沉积以大型块体搬运沉积为主,海底扇几乎不发育。琼东南盆地更新世以来气温不断下降,以及东亚冬季风的显著增强,物源供给增强加之海平面的下降进而导致了西北部陆架边缘表现为进积特征;研究区东北部的断裂活动频繁以及物源供给弱,导致了研究区东北部陆坡推进距离远远小于研究区西北部且发育多期次块体搬运沉积物。以上认识对南海北部陆架边缘体系及深水扇预测具有一定的理论意义。  相似文献   

新疆中天山地块星星峡群形成的构造背景及峰期变质条件     

朱米西  朱文斌  葛荣峰  王逸琼 《高校地质学报》2022,28(4):565-581

中天山地块是天山造山带的重要组成部分,其前寒武纪基底的年龄自西向东逐渐变老。星星峡群位于中天山地块最东端,是天山造山带最古老的前寒武纪基底。目前为止,有关星星峡群原岩形成的构造背景与后期发生的变形变质作用尚无详细研究。文章重点对星星峡群的变质片岩和片麻岩进行了野外观察和取样,室内开展了薄片观察、矿物电子探针分析以及全岩地球化学测试。全岩主量元素地球化学分析表明,星星峡群变质片岩和片麻岩的原岩主要为泥质岩和砂岩;微量与稀土元素结果显示,星星峡群沉积形成于大陆弧或活动大陆边缘环境。依据矿物电子探针成分分析数据结合全岩主量元素测试结果计算获得,星星峡群所经历的峰期变质温压条件大致为610~730℃,6.8~8.5 kbar。此外,通过最新的基底岩石变质年龄限定星星峡群发生峰期变质的时间大概在380 Ma。  相似文献   

Spatial-Temporal Ground Deformation Study of BaotouBased on the PS-InSAR Method     

GE Weili  LI Yuanjie  WANG Zhichao  ZHANG Chunming  YANG Honglei 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(2):674-683

Ground subsidence is an emerging geological hazard in Baotou,Inner Mongolia.Four areas of Baotou with relatively large subsidence range and rate were selected for analysis.Focusing on investigation of ground subsidence using PS-InSAR technology,a total of 43 frames of ALOS PALSAR images yielded a SAR data span from December 2006 to January 2011,allowing ground subsidence scope,subsidence velocity,time-series deformation to be obtained.Major causes and influencing factors of the ground subsidence are closely related to soft soil consolidation and compaction and the decrease in the level of groundwater caused by increased development and utilization of groundwater.  相似文献   

机器学习与成矿预测:以闽西南铁多金属矿预测为例     

张振杰  成秋明  杨玠  武国朋  葛云钊 《地学前缘》2021,28(3):221-235

作为近年来爆炸式发展的方法模型,机器学习为地质找矿提供了新的思维和研究方法。本文探讨矿产预测研究的理论方法体系,总结机器学习在矿产预测领域的特征信息提取和信息综合集成两个方面的应用现状,并讨论机器学习在矿产资源定量预测领域面临的训练样本稀少且不均衡、模型训练中缺乏不确定性评估、缺少反哺研究、方法选择等困难和挑战。进一步以闽西南马坑式铁矿为实例论述基于机器学习方法的矿产预测基本流程:(1)通过成矿系统研究建立成矿模型,确定矿床控矿要素;(2)通过勘查系统研究建立找矿模型,并为评价预测提供相关的勘查数据;(3)通过预测评价系统研究,建立预测模型,并提取预测要素;(4)利用机器学习模型对预测要素进行信息综合集成,获取成矿有利度图;(5)对预测性能和结果进行不确定性评估;(6)找矿靶区/成矿远景区圈定及资源量估算。最后,总结建立以地学大数据和地球系统理论为指导,以“地球系统-成矿系统-勘查系统-预测评价系统”为研究路线的基于地学大数据的矿产资源定量预测理论和方法体系的研究愿景。  相似文献